2018/05/11

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2018/05/10

China’s Trade Shows Healthy Growth, Really?

China’s trade in goods climbed 8.9% year-on-year to CNY 9.11 trillion (USD 1.43 trillion) in the first four months of this year, partly due to the upturn in the global economy and solid domestic demand, official data showed on Tuesday.

Exports rose 6.4% year-on-year to CNY 4.81 trillion between January and April, while imports grew 11.7% to CNY 4.3 trillion, according to the General Administration of Customs.

The robust trade performance can be attributed to the steady recovery of the global economy, and sustained domestic demand, said Huang Songping, spokesman for the General Administration of Customs.

China’s trade grew in a more balanced manner, as the nation has been stepping up efforts to boost its imports, Huang was quoted as saying by China Central Television on Tuesday.

image credit: internet
The trade surplus stood at CNY 506.24 billion in the first four months, which narrowed by 24.1% from the same period a year ago, data showed.

“Looking ahead, China’s imports are likely to be further underpinned by further opening-up measures such as tariff reduction, and a slew of policies to stimulate domestic consumption,” said Cai Hao, head of macroeconomic study at the Research Institute of Hengfeng Bank.

After getting off to a strong start, China’s foreign trade volume is forecast to remain strong in 2018, according to a report recently released by the Ministry of Commerce.

The report said the expansion would be underpinned by the stable recovery of the world economy, and sustained demand in the domestic market as supply-side structural reform advances.

In spite of the positive outlook, the report pointed out several factors that weighed on trade are still present. These include a complex international political and economic environment, anti-globalization, and rising protectionism.

A World Trade Organization report also pointed out that there are signs that escalating trade tensions may already be affecting business confidence and investment decisions, which could compromise the current outlook.

Sino-US trade talks will continue to have a significant impact on both bilateral and global trade, and good economic and trade relations between the world’s two largest economies are vital for continued economic growth and recovery”, Nie Wen, a macroeconomy analyst at HwaBao Trust, said in a research note.

China’s trade with economies participating in the Belt and Road Initiative was worth CNY 2.51 trillion in the first four months, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year, which was 2.7% points higher than the overall level.


In April, China’s trade registered growth climbed 7.2% year-on-year to CNY 2.36 trillion, with exports increasing 3.7% and imports growing 11.6%.

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2018/05/09

Global trade is weakening regardless of trade war

Since the United States introduced tariffs on China, there have been various claims on the future of global trade. Some experts point out that global trade will continue to decline, whether or not trade wars break out.

image credit: internet 
Some important global trade indicators are suddenly pointing downward. Chinese data for April may have looked fine, with exports up 3.7% on the year in yuan terms after falling 9.8% in March. Still, that rebound was likely thanks to the late Lunar New Year holiday in 2018: In seasonally adjusted terms, export volumes fell 2% on the month, Capital Economics estimates—the worst decline in nine months. Exports from Korea, another Asian trade bellwether, declined in April—the first drop since October 2016.


The droopy numbers have come in just as key industrial commodities are already coming under pressure. Copper prices are off over 6% this year, weighing on the share prices of miners like Freeport-McMoRan and Glencore. Dr. Copper’s weakness is a sobering sign for China and Asia in general: The region sucks up 70% of global demand for the metal.

Key manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes have also started stuttering: U.S., eurozone, Chinese, Japanese and South Korean PMIs all appear to have peaked between December and February, although all—apart from Korea—are still expanding.
Slower global trade—particularly when paired with higher oil prices and rebounding inflation—bodes ill for industrial firms such as Caterpillar, Deere and Japan’s Komatsu. Caterpillar has already warned that its first quarter results were likely the “high watermark” for the year.
It might, though, help head off worse tensions between the U.S. and China. With the growth rate in Europe, China’s largest export market, suddenly looking much weaker, the cost of a big rift with the U.S. is rising. Chinese companies are also starting to struggle at home: Industrial profits grew just 3% in March, their worst showing since December 2016.

China is unlikely to budge on its determination to create national champions in tech. But it might start offering more meaningful concessions on tariffs, restricted sectors for investment, and other trade irritants if foreign demand for its goods wavers.



Given the extreme negotiating positions both sides have staked out, U.S. trade tensions with China may get worse in the near-term. But the gathering clouds over the global growth story might eventually help encourage cooler heads to prevail.
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2018/05/08

China's imports from Belt and Road countries grow faster than exports

China's imports from "Belt and Road" countries increased faster that of exports for the first time in 2017, according to a think tank report

China's imports from "Belt and Road" countries increased faster that of exports for the first time in 2017, according to a think tank report.
The value of China's imports from Belt and Road countries stood at $666 billion in 2017, an increase of 20 percent year-on-year, or 39 percent of China's total imports value, according to a report compiled by the State Information Center, a State Council think tank.
image credit: internet
In the same year, China's exports to those countries came in at $774.26 billion, a rise of 8.5 percent year-on-year. The growth of imports outpaced exports for the first time since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed five years ago.
China's combined trade with those countries reached $1.44 trillion, up 13.4 percent year-on-year, 5.9 percentage points faster than China's overall trade growth.
The Belt and Road Initiative was proposed by China in 2013 to boost trade and investment among countries along the ancient Silk Road trade routes from Asia to Europe and Africa.
China's trade with Central Asia countries grew at the fastest rate, followed by Eastern Europe. Countries including Republic of Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, India and Russia rank among China's top 10 trading partners along the routes, contributing nearly 70 percent of China's trade with Belt and Road countries.
China mainly sells mechanical and electrical products to Belt and Road countries, and imports mechanical and electrical products as well as fossil fuel from them, the report said.
Chinese private companies do the biggest chunk of trade, followed by foreign-invested companies and State-owned firms.
Yu Shiyang, director of the department of big data development under the State Information Center, said that amid rising protectionism by some countries, China's trade with Belt and Road countries had risen at a brisk pace, showing the initiative was being implemented well, featuring free trade flow.
The report covers 71 countries along the Belt and Road summarizing the current trade picture and projecting future trends.
One of China’s leading port city, Ningbo is also pitched in its own effort for the Belt and Road Initiative via the establishment of a Central and Eastern Europe Innovation Center.




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2018/05/07

Asia’s development offers huge opportunities for developed countries

Asian countries especially China are playing an increasing role in the global development. Investors from all over the world are coming to China for investment opportunities and China in return also offers preferential policies to foreign investors.
The president of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) said Saturday that Asia's economic development will offer enormous market opportunities for developed countries, including the United States.

Jin Liqun, President of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, attends the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland January 24, 2018.

image credit: internet
In his keynote speech at the 2018 annual conference of the Committee of 100 (C100), a prominent group committed to the promotion of China-U.S. relations and the advancement of Chinese Americans, Jin Liqun, president of the AIIB, told an audience of 500 people how the bank was created to facilitate the growth of developing countries largely based on China's experience in the past few decades.

He said the China-initiated bank, which was established in 2015, was created for the sole purpose of helping developing countries along the Belt and Road routes build their infrastructure and grow their economies.
Jin said the AIIB is in its third year now and that in the first two years, the bank has implemented a lending program worth 4.2 billion U.S. dollars.
"The bank has been helping the Asian developing countries, particularly India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Indonesia ... and the first country outside Asia we support is Egypt," he said.
The AIIB now has 86 members, and it is holding a dialogue with the developing countries in Latin America and Africa to obtain their support, he said, adding that "we're actually investing in all our member countries."
Jin said the AIIB is "open and inclusive," and it thus also welcomes the participation of developed countries.
"If Asia develops, and if the rest of Asia develops as China, it means that a huge export market for the U.S. and European countries (will emerge), and direct and indirect benefits will accrue for all the countries in the world," said the AIIB president.
He assured U.S. investors that American companies will be treated fairly if they participate in a competitive bidding of the contracts issued by the bank.
He hoped for the advanced management experience of the United States in helping the nascent infrastructure development bank develop a more sound governance system for its operation.
Jin was invited to be one of the keynote speakers to address the C100 annual conference in Silicon Valley. Topics discussed during the meeting included China-U.S. relations, artificial intelligence, intellectual property rights protection and innovation. 
One of China’s leading port city, Ningbo are also pitched in its own effort for the Belt and Road Initiative via the establishment of a Central and Eastern Europe Innovation Center.

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