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2017/08/07

Under Trump’s watch, the U.S. dollar has plunged

The US President Trump regards the strong stock market as proof that his economic policies are effective. But how to explain the weak U.S. dollar?

The greenback has been shut out of the summer party on Wall Street. Just as the Dow cruised above 22,000 on Wednesday, the dollar tumbled to a 15-month low against its rival currencies.

That's not all bad: The weaker dollar has helped power stocks to record highs, and it helps American companies make money overseas.

image credit: internet

But the conflicting messages from the currency and stock markets are dramatic, especially considering that the dollar initially spiked after Trump's victory. His promises of big tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation sent it to a 14-year high in January.

Investors believed at the time that Trump, along with a Republican-controlled Congress, would finally unleash the sluggish U.S. economy and force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively.

But Trump's legislative failures, combined with rejuvenated economic growth in Europe, have dealt a powerful blow to the almighty dollar. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the American currency against its rivals, has plunged 10% since peaking in Jan. 3. The dollar is in its first five-month losing streak since 2011.

image credit: internet


While the stock market has been driven to record highs by strong corporate earnings, the currency market seems to be fed up with Trump's stumbles.

The "White House soap opera" has fueled the dollar's decline, according to Kit Juckes, a macro strategist at Societe Generale.

"Confidence in the U.S. administration's ability to deliver growth-boosting fiscal policies is at rock bottom," Juckes wrote in a report this week.

Even as Trump repeatedly brags about the stock market -- he tweeted about Dow 22,000 before it even happened -- he has said little about the dollar's slide. But he has dropped hints suggesting he isn't losing sleep over what the currency market thinks about him.

"I like a dollar that's not too strong," Trump recently told The Wall Street Journal, according to a leaked transcript posted this week by Politico.

"Frankly, other than the fact that it sounds good, bad things happen with a strong dollar," Trump told the Journal.

Of course, it's not black and white. There are positive and negative consequences of a weaker dollar.

The U.S. can compete better overseas: Earlier this year, the dollar was so high that it threatened to dent corporate profits. When the dollar is strong, products that are priced in dollars and sold overseas are more expensive for foreign customers. A strong dollar also hurts when foreign profits are converted back to the U.S. currency at a lower value.

Trump knows that a too-strong dollar would hurt his efforts to rejuvenate U.S. factories by boosting exports.

Dow stocks love it: Most members of the 30-stock Dow make a big chunk of money overseas. That means they would enjoy fatter profits thanks to the weaker dollar. The Dow's three best-performing stocks this year -- Boeing (BA), Apple (AAPL, Tech30) and Visa (V) -- rely on the United States for less than 55% of their total revenue.

This helps explain why the Dow is up three times as much as the Russell 2000, which is home to smaller companies that are more U.S.-focused.

What about that trip to Europe? On the other hand, you might be bummed if you booked a flight to Paris in January hoping to take advantage of the strong dollar. Americans traveling overseas will get less when they convert their dollars. One euro now costs $1.19. That's a big difference from January, when it only cost $1.03.

Sticker shock for big importers: Likewise, companies that ship supplies in from overseas will have to pay more than a year ago. The dollar may still be strong overall, but the shift could hurt those companies' profits.


Signal of sluggish growth: As a candidate, Trump promised to speed up the U.S. economy to 4% annual growth. The weaker dollar signals that investors don't believe he's going to deliver on that promise any time soon.


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2017/04/27

The pros and cons of President Trump's new tax plan

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration unveiled the principles of the long-awaited tax reform plan on Wednesday ahead of the administration's first 100 days in office. The plan can remarkably cut income taxes for Americans and corporates.

The plan would reduce the number of personal income tax brackets to three from seven, and it would cut the top individual income tax rate to 35 percent from 39.6 percent, Gary Cohn, director of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), said at a press briefing at the White House.

trump tax plan
Image Credit: Internet
At the same time, the plan would cut the corporate income tax rate to 15 percent from 35 percent, and it would also impose a one-time tax on overseas profits of U.S. companies, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said at the same press briefing.

That "will bring back trillions of dollars that are offshore to be invested here in the United States, to purchase capital and to create jobs," he said.

The plan would also eliminate all tax deductions for individuals except from mortgage interests and charitable tax deductions, according to Mnuchin.

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"We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to do something really big," Cohn said, noting President Donald Trump has made tax reform a priority and the Republican-controlled Congress also wants to get it done.

"We are determined to move as fast as we can and get this done this year," Mnuchin added.

However, it's still unclear whether the plan, what U.S. officials called the "biggest tax cut" in U.S. history, would be revenue-neutral or would significantly increase U.S. fiscal deficits.

Mnuchin has repeatedly argued that the administration would count on the compounding effect of strong economic growth over the next decade to finance the tax cuts.
"This will pay for itself with growth and with reduction of different deductions and closing loopholes," he said.

However, many economists are skeptical about that argument, as the U.S. economic growth will average about only 1.9 percent over the next ten years, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

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"In order for a corporate income tax cut to 15 percent to be self-financing, it would have to raise the level of growth to 2.8 percent on average," said Alan Cole, an economist at the Tax Foundation, adding most economic models would not expect the tax cuts to boost U.S. growth by additional 0.9 percentage points over the 10-year budget window.

The details of a complete tax proposal probably won't be ready until June, according to Mick Mulvaney, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.


Mulvaney said on Sunday. "You can either have a small tax cut that's permanent or a large tax cut that is short-term. I don't think we decided that." 

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2017/04/17

Trump fires back at tax protesters to be demanding without giving the...

April 15 is normally the filing deadline for taxes, but not this year. Because Tax Day fell on a Saturday and April 17 is Emancipation Day, a Washington D.C. observed holiday, April 18 is the Tax deadline for 2017. While this gives filers a little more time to get those returns done there is some information taxpayers need to know if they still are still working on taxes.

trump tax reform tax day tax cuts
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As it approaches, many people’s thoughts turn primarily to the task of assembling all the paperwork filing entails. Others mainly think about how much they might owe, or if a refund is in the offing.
This Tax Day weekend, Americans did much more than just file their taxes.
On Saturday, thousands of protests gathered around the country — some at Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago getaway — to protest the president and to demand to see his tax returns.
Trump's tax returns have been an ongoing issue, both during his campaign trail and early presidency.

"In the last 40 years, all presidents and presidential candidates have released their tax returns," said U.S. Rep. Bill Foster, D-Naperville, who addressed the large crowd that spilled beyond the pavilion onto the sidewalks and plaza around the Dandelion Fountain. "Over 75 percent of Americans think President Donald Trump should release his tax returns, including Republicans."

For many decades every president has released his tax returns. If Trump’s finances are on the up and up and he has nothing to hide, why has he repeatedly refused to demonstrate this to the American people? He has made the bogus claim that he cannot release his tax returns because he is under audit. Well, his 2016 returns are not under audit and should be released as soon as they are filed.

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